All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

(0:00) Bestie intros: Brad Gerstner fills in for Friedberg! (2:58) OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs: Why it matters who goes first, what they learned from the SpaceX IPO, the unlimited TAM of intelligence (27:39) The open source decision, Meta's new model, Zuck's price war, AI duopoly (54:29) CCP considering putting export controls on Chinese models, is open source ending in China? (1:03:09) Trump Accounts launch, getting young Americans bought back into capitalism Apply for Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow Brad: ttps://x.com/altcap Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027 https://x.com/thejessezhang/status/2074154325933424861 https://x.com/praveenTweets/status/2074605343439810922 https://x.com/nikesharora/status/2074802778074124434 https://x.com/nikesharora/status/2074814752174522857 https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2070670644577280109 https://x.com/andyfang/status/2074252174226493584 https://x.com/nikesharora/status/2074630732019036574 https://x.com/finkd/status/2075218444056707458 https://x.com/alighodsi/status/2074996561306955958 https://blog.nicolasmeridjen.com/en/blog/2026-04-03-alibaba-qwen-closed-source-end-of-open-weight https://www.chinatalk.media/p/chinas-ai-companies-are-going-closed https://www.reuters.com/world/beijing-is-looking-curbing-overseas-access-chinas-top-ai-models-sources-say-2026-07-07 https://x.com/KurtSupeCPA/thread/2074817292550984010

(0:00) The AI Buildout: Datacenters Bigger Than Cities (Andrew Feldman) (1:50) Reasoning, Inference, and Breaking Moore's Law (16:28) Open Source, AI Sovereignty, and the Road to AGI (40:54) The Innovation Behind Generative Video (Robin Rombach) (47:31) Martin Scorsese, Robots, and the Future of Hollywood IP Thanks to our partners for making this possible! AppLovin Ads - AppLovin's AI advertising platform reaches over a billion daily active users across mobile games. Full-screen video ads with a 35-second median watch time. Advertisers are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day and advertiser access is still in closed beta. The window is open at https://applovin.com/ALLIN Nasdaq - Industries, capital, and intelligence are converging into a single, interconnected system, and the infrastructure behind it needs to evolve just as quickly. Nasdaq was built for this moment: Powering more than 135 marketplaces and regulators globally and connecting capital to the companies shaping the future. As the innovation economy accelerates, connectivity becomes the critical asset. Nasdaq is the technology platform that makes it possible, and scalable. Learn more at https://Nasdaq.com Follow Andrew: https://x.com/andrewdfeldman Follow Robin: https://x.com/robrombach Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg

(0:00) Bestie intros: Happy Fourth of July! (0:21) Palantir-Nvidia open source deal, Alex Karp's CNBC "Crashout" (33:52) Update on the AI jobs debate (50:24) Anthropic's Fable 5 available after export restrictions lifted (59:06) SCOTUS upholds birthright citizenship, striking Trump's EO (1:21:30) Newsom's "balanced budget" and how California's dire fiscal situation could break apart the Union Apply for Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/palantir-secure-ai-us-agencies-nemotron-open-models https://x.com/PalantirTech/status/2072326189079757277 https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-blindsides-business-partners?rc=f8fu8f https://www.google.com/finance/quote/FIG:NYSE https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2072673187666813226 https://x.com/chamath/status/2072665199786561713 https://x.com/quxiaoyin/status/2072428278976074115 https://x.com/chamath/status/2072390507628540213 https://www.justice.gov/usao-cdca/pr/chinese-national-pleads-guilty-running-birth-tourism-scheme-helped-aliens-give-birth-us https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democratic-socialist-melat-kiros-defeats-longtime-house-incumbent-in-colorado-primary https://x.com/GavinNewsom/status/2070496029280276571 https://www.ocregister.com/2026/02/27/these-charts-show-how-californias-budget-has-skyrocketed https://x.com/JeanneIves/status/2072165726526308719 https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028

(0:00) Nate Silver joins the pod! (10:02) California's ballot counting problem: Raman's late-mail surge, ballot harvesting claims, and why the US counts slower than India (25:18) Democrats' three-way civil war: The left, the abundance libs, and Newsom's "resistance lib" base (34:48) The winning 2028 playbook: Anti-oligarch messaging, why young men want control, and immigrants fleeing the Dems (45:48) How algorithmic social media entrenches polarization: Elon's X, filter bubbles, and the death of the chronological feed (50:01) 2026 midterm predictions: 85-90% Dem House takeover, Senate toss-up, and the Iran/gas price wildcard (55:20) Newsom is collapsing in polls: Nate's 2028 Dem bet is AOC   Thanks to our partners! Northwest Registered Agent — Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. Get more at northwestregisteredagent.com/ALLINFREE PLAUD — If your work depends on conversations — meetings, deal flow, interviews, customer calls — Plaud helps you capture and organize everything with highly accurate AI-generated notes that are not just simple summaries, but also highlight pain points, key decisions, next steps, and customizable summary templates. Check out Plaud at Plaud.ai/allin and use code ALLIN for up to 20% off! Which is also available on Amazon: https://amzn.to/43URLff (Code: ALLIN20X) Follow Nate: https://x.com/NateSilver538  Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect